Turkey’s political landscape over the past quarter-century has been marked by a complex interplay of rhetoric and reality, revealing a troubling susceptibility to political manipulation. This disposition stems from socio-cultural, historical, and psychological factors that intertwine to shape collective behavior and decision-making.

One of the key factors is the enduring impact of populism, a political strategy that appeals to the emotions, fears, and hopes of the public while often bypassing rational discourse. Turkish society, with its rich history of centralized authority and top-down governance, has shown a proclivity to rally behind charismatic leaders who promise sweeping reforms or grand visions. This tendency can be traced back to psychological constructs such as cognitive dissonance, wherein individuals reconcile contradictions between promises and outcomes by rationalizing failures or shifting blame.

A vivid example of this dynamic occurred during the 2002 rise of the Justice and Development Party (AKP). The party campaigned on the platform of democratization, economic growth, and European Union accession. Early reforms, such as improved freedoms of expression and significant infrastructural development, seemed to affirm their promises. However, as years passed, the narrative shifted toward increasing authoritarianism, centralized power, and divergence from EU ideals. Verbal assurances of inclusivity often contrasted with policies curtailing dissent and weakening institutional checks and balances.

Another example lies in economic management. Leaders frequently promised prosperity and stability, employing populist economic measures to gain short-term support. For instance, during the 2018 currency crisis, officials assured the public that Turkey was under attack from foreign conspiracies, diverting attention from structural economic issues. The gap between rhetoric—claiming resilience and self-sufficiency—and the reality of increasing inflation and unemployment highlights a pattern of divergence between verbal commitments and implemented policies.

Psychologically, these deviations exploit several cognitive biases. Confirmation bias leads individuals to selectively absorb information that supports their existing beliefs, often ignoring contradictory evidence. Similarly, the optimism bias makes people overestimate positive outcomes despite repeated disappointments. Political actors leverage these biases, crafting narratives that shield themselves from accountability.

Media plays a significant role, often reinforcing these narratives. Over the last 25 years, the concentration of media ownership and censorship has limited access to diverse viewpoints, enabling the amplification of government rhetoric. This controlled information flow nurtures a cycle where unfulfilled promises remain unchallenged, fostering societal resignation or compliance.

The dilemma lies in the psychological comfort provided by grand narratives versus the discomfort of confronting hard truths. Overcoming this disposition requires fostering critical thinking, diversifying media voices, and strengthening civil society to hold political actors accountable. Only through these measures can Turkish society begin to bridge the gap between rhetoric and reality, and diminish the cycle of manipulation.